China has appealed a World Trade Organization (WTO) ruling that its export restrictions on rare earth elements (REEs), molybdenum and tungsten are inconsistent with its obligations as a WTO member, but word on the street is that the Asian nation doesn’t think that appeal will be fruitful.
Reuters reported today that according to an unnamed industry source, Beijing “expects to have little choice but to accept the ruling and could cancel export restrictions” on all three metals “by next year.” And, if that happens “smoothly,” export quotas on other products could also be thrown out the window.
That said, don’t expect China to abandon its long-term plans — namely, “improv[ing] pricing power and gain[ing] market share in lucrative downstream industries.” David Abraham, an independent resource analyst, told the news outlet, “the WTO decision does not change the strategy, just the means at China’s disposal.” Explaining further, he said, “the tools of the day are now taxes, exchanges and regulations to consolidate companies into a few champions.”
Ryan Castilloux of Adamas Intelligence agrees. He told Reuters, “I think they’re looking at what they need to do in the long-term to take what was once an export tariff and turn it into a resource tax so the net result is positive.”
A resource tax may also be good for companies hoping to produce REEs outside of China. David Stringer notes in a Bloomberg article, also published today, that new taxes and regulations could push REE prices up, thereby paving the way for such companies to succeed.
For now, however, the future is up in the air. Reuters states that the Association of China Rare Earth Industry and the Chinese ministries that would be involved in any changes have not yet made any comments.